With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
Today, seven states hold primaries: Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota and California.
What should you be watching for? The day’s biggest news will likely come from the Golden State, where voters are poised to make major statements about the directions of their respective parties.
IN CALIFORNIA …
The Republicans:
The big question: how large DONALD TRUMP looms in the party.
Races to watch: GOP Reps. YOUNG KIM and DAVID VALADAO are facing close primaries in swing districts with pro-Trump candidates nipping at their heels.
The national relevance: “A loss by either would be a disaster for Republicans,” as Dems see the battleground seats as potential pickup opportunities, Lara Korte, Alex Nieves and Ally Mutnick write in their curtain-raiser this morning. “[JOE] BIDEN won both of those districts in 2020 — running up a 13-point margin in Valadao’s seat. Democrats are targeting both districts and would much rather face [their opponents] than the two incumbents, who have large campaign accounts and known crossover appeal.”
The Democrats:
The big question: whether “tough on crime” politics is making a comeback among Democratic voters. Write Lara, Alex and Ally: “Concerns about the rising rates of homicide, assault and property crime have put an uncomfortable spotlight on California’s Democratic leaders, who in recent years have favored policies that reduce sentencing and aim to lower the population of overcrowded prisons.”
Races to watch: There are two in particular …
— The Los Angeles mayoral primary is all but certain to set up a November general election between two Democratic candidates: longtime Rep. KAREN BASS, a progressive, and billionaire businessman RICK CARUSO, a former Republican who has outspent everyone in the race by several orders of magnitude. Bass has advocated more community-based crime prevention programs, while Caruso has proposed posting an additional 1,500 law enforcement officers on the street and requiring people to move from homeless encampments to shelter beds.
— San Francisco’s D.A. recall election: In 2019, CHESA BOUDIN was elected district attorney “on promises to reform San Francisco’s criminal justice system — by increasing police accountability and shifting away from policies that disproportionately fill jails and prisons with poor people and people of color,” write S.F. Chronicle’s Tara Duggan and Ricardo Cano. “But a sizable, vocal contingent of San Franciscans is seeking to unseat him Tuesday, in the belief that those policies are too lenient and have made San Francisco a more dangerous place to live and work.”
The national relevance: “An earthquake is building in Tuesday’s California elections that could rattle the political landscape from coast to coast,” CNN’s Ronald Brownstein writes in an excellent look at the stakes. “In Los Angeles and San Francisco, two of the nation’s most liberal large cities, voters are poised to send stinging messages of discontent over mounting public disorder, as measured in both upticks in certain kinds of crime and pervasive homelessness. …
“Linking both these contests … is a widespread sense among voters in both cities that local government is failing at its most basic responsibility: to ensure public safety and order. … Tuesday’s California results will likely send a stark message to the Democrats controlling Congress and the White House. The outcome will again underscore how much danger a party in power can face when voters feel that certainty has been stripped from their lives — a dynamic that extends beyond crime and homelessness to inflation, soaring gasoline prices and continued disruption from the unending Covid pandemic.”
WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD KNOW …
— The big picture: “A true battleground map comes into view” with today’s primaries, write NYT’s Jonathan Weisman and Shawn Hubler. “In most of the country, congressional redistricting shored up incumbency for both parties. Tuesday will showcase much of the battleground that remains. Of the 53 House seats that the nonpartisan Cook Political Report sees in play, nine are in California, New Mexico and Iowa.”
— A different kind of Trump test: Last year, 35 House Republicans voted to create a bipartisan commission to investigate the Jan. 6 attack at the Capitol; five of them are on the ballot today. And though Trump promised retribution for any Republican who dared cross him, he hasn’t played quite as big a role in today’s primaries as he has in the other marquee matchups this cycle.
That might be good news for those five — especially Rep. DUSTY JOHNSON, the two-term South Dakota Republican who is battling a challenge from state Rep. TAFFY HOWARD, who has spread Trump’s lies that the 2020 election was stolen. (Notably, Johnson also voted to keep Wyoming Rep. LIZ CHENEY in her GOP leadership post.) Another incumbent to keep your eyes on: Rep. MICHAEL GUEST, the only member of the Mississippi delegation who voted for the Jan. 6 commission, who is fighting off two Trumpian challengers.
If the five get through today with their nominations intact, it could be yet another signal that Republican voters aren’t always going to take marching orders from Trump.
Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
WATCH — “4 strategies Democrats should steal from Republicans. ASAP”: Throughout the midterms, Eugene is hosting “The Midterm View,” a video series looking at the operatives, strategies, politics and policies that will be the centerpiece of the 2022 campaign.
In the second episode — out this morning — the team traveled to New York to sit down with JULIE ROGINSKY, a Democratic strategist who spent more than a decade as the almost lone liberal voice on Fox News.
Her advice: There are four big lessons Democrats need to take away from their Republican counterparts’ success. Watch the video to find out what they are
BIDEN’S TUESDAY:
— 10 a.m.: The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief.
— 2:45 p.m.: Biden will sign several bills into law focused on care for veterans, with VA Secretary DENIS MCDONOUGH attending.
VP KAMALA HARRIS’ TUESDAY (all times Eastern):
— 5:15 p.m.: The VP will host a women’s leadership roundtable at the InterContinental Los Angeles, focused on northern Central America.
— 6:20 p.m.: Harris will speak at the In Her Hands lunch.
— 7 p.m.: Harris will lead a roundtable with business executives and announce new private-sector investments in the region.
Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 1:45 p.m.
THE SENATE will meet at 10 a.m., with votes at 11:30 a.m. on an Air Force nominee confirmation and cloture on the motion to proceed to a veterans toxic exposure bill. The chamber will recess from 12:30 p.m. to 2:15 p.m. for weekly conference meetings, followed by more nomination votes at 4 p.m. Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN will testify before the Finance Committee at 10 a.m. Education Secretary MIGUEL CARDONA will testify before an Appropriations subcommittee at 10:30 a.m.
THE HOUSE will meet at 2 p.m. to take up several bills, with votes postponed until 6:30 p.m. The Rules Committee will meet at 2 p.m. to take up two major gun restriction bills.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
GUNS IN AMERICA
As senators seek a way forward on possible gun legislation, JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) is again in the thick of negotiating action. It’s “a familiar role” for him, writes NYT’s Carl Hulse: “the conservative Republican in a room of centrists who can make or break an agreement.” Cornyn’s involvement guarantees any gun bill won’t be far-reaching, but Democrats and advocates involved with the issue are expressing optimism that he’s sincere.
Cornyn said on the Senate floor Monday that the bill would indeed be narrow, and dismissed Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER’s timeline of landing a deal by this week, per Bloomberg.
Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) said Monday he would support raising the age for buying semiautomatic weapons to 21, per CNN’s Manu Raju and Clare Foran, and expressed openness to an assault weapons ban (a much heavier lift). But Cornyn and Sen. THOM TILLIS (R-N.C.) said even raising the age to 21 likely won’t happen, though a bill could include “changing the criminal background check system to access juvenile records before a sale is complete,” CNN’s Raju, Lauren Fox and Ted Barrett report.
CONGRESS
2023 DREAMING — If they take back the House, Republicans plan to push a variety of hot-button bills that they know cannot pass the Senate but may set the national debate ahead of 2024, Jordain Carney reports. The legislation could range from the Keystone XL pipeline to a “parental bill of rights” to the southern border wall.
Rep. JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio): “You help frame up the 2024 presidential election by passing good legislation that will go to the Senate, probably won’t be able to get the 60 votes needed to pass … but that will help frame up the presidential race.”
GARCETTI BACKERS PRESSURE KELLY — ERIC GARCETTI allies who want the L.A. mayor confirmed as U.S. ambassador to India pushed Sen. MARK KELLY to back him, and “left the strong impression that the Arizona Democrat could find himself cut off from donor networks should he refuse,” reports Chris Cadelago. But the outreach doesn’t seem to have worked, instead ticking off Kelly, who’s raised concerns about Garcetti’s handling of sexual misconduct allegations against a top aide.
Kelly spox JACOB PETERS: “Sen. Kelly was shot at over Iraq during Operation Desert Storm, so there’s a zero percent chance he’d be intimidated by this.”
ALL POLITICS
RECOUNT ME IN — Two losing Democratic primary candidates in key Texas swing districts said Monday they’ll ask for recounts in their ultra-close runoffs: progressive JESSICA CISNEROS, who lost to moderate Rep. HENRY CUELLAR by 281 votes, and moderate RUBEN RAMIREZ, who lost to progressive MICHELLE VALLEJO by 30 votes. More from The Texas Tribune
RED-LIGHT REDISTRICT — Dems got a bit of good redistricting news Monday as a Louisiana judge blocked Republicans’ congressional map and ordered legislators to create a new map that would add another majority-Black district, as Democratic Gov. JOHN BEL EDWARDS wanted. The matter goes now to the conservative 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. More from The (Baton Rouge) Advocate
FETTERMAN MAKES AD DEBUT ON FOX NEWS —Holly Otterbein scoops that JOHN FETTERMAN, the Democratic Senate nominee in Pennsylvania, is bucking expectations by “airing one of his first two general election TV ads” on Fox News — part of an effort to “appeal to blue-collar voters.”
Related Read: “Fetterman’s wife says Democratic Senate candidate may be away from campaign trail until July as he recovers from a stroke” by CNN’s Jeff Zeleny
JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH
NEW SEDITIOUS CONSPIRACY CHARGES — “The Justice Department on Monday charged the head of the Proud Boys, ENRIQUE TARRIO, and four other leaders with seditious conspiracy” stemming from their involvement in the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol,” report CNN’s Hannah Rabinowitz and Katelyn Polantz. They are “the first allegations by prosecutors that the group tried to oppose by force the presidential transfer of power.”
PRIMETIME PREVIEW — Thursday night’s primetime hearing will feature “live testimony from NICK QUESTED, a British documentarian who was filming the [Proud Boys] with its permission during the riot,” NYT’s Alan Feuer, Adam Goldman and Luke Broadwater scooped.
— Former ABC News president JAMES GOLDSTON is advising the committee and producing the hearing “as if it were a blockbuster investigative special,”per Axios’ Mike Allen.
— The big question is how much the hearings will rivet and change Americans, and how many will watch in the first place, writes AP’s Calvin Woodward.
Related Read: “Jan. 6 Hearings Give Democrats a Chance to Recast Midterm Message” by NYT’s Annie Karni and Luke Broadwater
THE PLOTS TO SUBVERT THE ELECTION — Georgia’s “alternate electors” for Trump were instructed by a campaign official to use “complete secrecy and discretion” as they sought to overturn the 2020 election result, WaPo’s Amy Gardner, Beth Reinhard, Rosalind Helderman and Jacqueline Alemany report. The December 2020 email they obtained came from the strikingly named ROBERT SINNERS, who’s now working for Georgia Secretary of State BRAD RAFFENSPERGER and tells WaPo that “my views on this matter have changed significantly.”
AMERICA AND THE WORLD
MOUNTING THE SUMMIT — Mexican President ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR’s move Monday to boycott this week’s Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles surprised many in the Biden administration, who didn’t think he’d actually make good on his threats, Jonathan Lemire reports. And “there has been growing frustration within the West Wing that the back-and-forth soap opera over the guest list has been the defining — and only — breakthrough conversation” about the confab.
— Meanwhile, a new migrant caravan is heading for the U.S. from southern Mexico, timed to draw attention at the same time as the summit, Reuters’ Jose Torres and Lizbeth Diaz report. The several thousand migrants may constitute one of the largest such caravans in recent years.
— Nahal Toosi has a helpful breakdown of what to watch for at the summit this week, from the Biden administration’s deliverables to Ukraine to China to Florida.
BEYOND THE BELTWAY
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — JULIE SLAMA, a Republican Nebraska state senator who is suing failed GOP gubernatorial candidate CHARLES HERBSTER for sexual battery, is subpoenaing former Herbster advisers COREY LEWANDOWSKI and DAVID BOSSIE in the discovery phase of the case, according to a court filing obtained by Daniel Lippman.
Slama’s attorney,DAVE LOPEZ, wants to obtain all communications that Lewandowski, Bossie and (as previously reported) KELLYANNE CONWAY had with Herbster that relate to the series of sexual misconduct allegations he has faced. Slama is among eight different women who have accused Herbster of groping and unwanted touching at various political dinners and events. Herbster has denied the allegations, and sued Slama for defamation — prompting her to counter-sue for sexual battery.
Lewandowski and Bossie didn’t respond to requests for comment. A spokesperson for Herbster had no comment. Conway declined to comment.
MEDIAWATCH
WHAT TWITTER IS BUZZING ABOUT — “The Washington Post suspends reporter David Weigel over sexist retweet,” by CNN’s Oliver Darcy
Fox News Channelwill not be airing Thursday’s Jan. 6 committee hearings live.
Matthew McConaugheymet with Dick Durbin on Monday.
Paging Fetterman: WSJ asks, “Is the Time for Shorts in the Office Finally Here?”
Tom Wolftested positive for the coronavirus for the second time.
SPOTTED: McConaughey and wife Camila having dinner Monday night at Fiola Mare with numerous senators including Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Rob Portman (R-Ohio), Eric Bovim,Mike Rubino,Amanda Loveday and Noe Garcia.
IN MEMORIAM — “Ken Bode, political reporter who moderated ‘Washington Week,’ dies at 83,” by WaPo’s Harrison Smith: He “drew on his experience in academia and Democratic Party politics during a varied career in journalism, reporting on the presidential campaign trail for NBC, making prizewinning documentaries for CNN and moderating the public affairs roundtable ‘Washington Week’ for PBS.”
OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED on Sunday and Monday at the Republican Governance Group PAC’s annual retreat in Middleburg, Va.: Reps. Steve Womack (R-Ark.) (who led a group of members grilling for a crowd of over 150 people), Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.), Troy Balderson (R-Ohio), Michael Burgess (R-Texas), John Curtis (R-Utah), Rodney Davis (R-Ill.), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.), Carlos Gimenez (R-Fla.), David Joyce (R-Ohio), John Katko (R-N.Y.), Blake Moore (R-Utah), Pete Stauber (R-Minn.), Fred Upton (R-Mich.) and Beth Van Duyne (R-Texas).
— The National Association of Broadcasters celebrated former Sen. Gordon Smith’s (R-Ore.) quarter-century of service in Washington on Monday night at the International Spy Museum, where Smith’s successor at NAB, Curtis LeGeyt, and others honored him. SPOTTED: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), Jerry Moran (R-Kan.), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) and Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.), Reps. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) and Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), Michael O’Rielly and Major Garrett.
BOOK CLUB — Gabe Debenedetti is coming out with a new book, “The Long Alliance: The Imperfect Union of Joe Biden and Barack Obama,” on Sept. 13 from Henry Holt. The narrative will span from the 2004 election campaign to the first year of Biden’s presidency, detailing a bond that “is significantly more layered and consequential than is widely understood.” $29.99 pre-order
— Our colleague Christopher Miller will publish “The War Came to Us: Life and Death in Ukraine” in June 2023 from Bloomsbury Continuum, per The Bookseller’s Ruth Comerford. “The book traces my journey in parallel with Ukraine’s, through peacetime, revolution, and war,” he says. “It’s a narrative about the people and events that have forged a new Ukrainian identity and nation along the way, and the conflict and threats they are now enduring.”
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Austin Cantrell has been named VP at Bridge Public Affairs. He most recently was president of Cantrell Communications, and is a Trump White House alum.
— Esther Ongeri has joined the Office of the White House Liaison as a staff assistant. She was previously in the Office of Global Women’s Issues at State.
NEW NOMINEES — The White House announced several new U.S. attorney nominations: Adair Ford Boroughs for South Carolina, Martin Estrada for the Central District of California, Gregory Haanstad for the Eastern District of Wisconsin, Sopen Shah for the Western District of Wisconsin, and Natalie Wight for Oregon.
PENTAGON BRIEFING ROOM UPDATE: Former Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby started his new gig as National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications at the White House Monday — but his permanent replacement in the briefing room is still a question mark. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s team is looking at a number of potential candidates, and we hear that list now includes Marie Harf, the former CIA spokesperson who is now a liberal commentator on Fox News, our Lara Seligman reports.
TRANSITIONS — Molly Jenkins is joining Purple Strategies as a manager. She most recently was comms director for Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.), and is a Greg Walden/Energy & Commerce alum. Garcia’s new comms director will be Noah Sadlier. He’s currently a digital strategist at FlexPoint Media, and is a Fred Upton and Peter Meijer campaign alum. … Paul Arcangeli is joining Invariant’s government relations arm, our colleague Connor O’Brien scooped. He previously was the longtime Democratic staff director on the House Armed Services Committee. …
… Kivvit has added several staffers to its D.C. office: Myya Passmore as general manager, Evan Keller as principal, DeJoiry McKenzie-Simmons as senior public affairs associate, Ismail Cidic as public affairs associate and Sam Stocks as senior talent associate. … Karla Thieman is now SVP for public policy and government affairs at JBS USA. She previously was a partner in the food and agriculture division of Finsbury Glover Hering. … Nathan Ross has rejoined the Conference of State Bank Supervisors as director of regulatory policy. He most recently was at Unum.
ENGAGED — Chris Keosian, scheduler for Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) and an Eric Swalwell, Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg campaign alum, and Summer Legambi, a consultant at Deloitte, got engaged in Zion National Park on Thursday. They met at the University of Maryland. Pic … Another pic
WEEKEND WEDDINGS — Ansley Braden, director of operations for Rep. Larry Bucshon (R-Ind.), and Matt Boylan, associate principal investigator and attorney for the National Cause & Financial Crimes Detection Program at FINRA, got married Saturday in her hometown of Brookhaven, Miss. They met on Bumble during the pandemic. Pic … Another pic
— David Weinman, executive director of Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan’s 501(c)(4) An America United, and Martha Macon Smith, a teacher/dean at Holton Arms School, got married Saturday at Martha’s family farm in Virginia, with a reception at the Metropolitan Club. The couple met at a birthday party of a mutual friend. SPOTTED:Larry Hogan and Amelia Chasse Alcivar and Lenny Alcivar. Pic … Another pic
BIRTHWEEK (was Monday): Abby Ginzberg
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Mike Pence … Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M) … Reps. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.) and Susan Wild (D-Pa.) … Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman … WSJ’s Catherine Lucey … DNC’s Adonna Biel … Myra Adams … Vox’s Christina Animashaun … Finsbury Glover Hering’s Lars Anderson … POLITICO’s Jenn Stalzer and Lynn Zhong … Signal Group’s Chris Ortman (42) … Livingston Group’s Paul Kelly (61) … retired Coast Guard Vice Adm. Brian Peterman … Elizabeth Thorp … Stephanie Reichin of SKDKnickerbocker … Alexander Mooney … State’s Jerry White … Nathasha Lim … Haley Dorgan … David Kim … CNN’s Javier de Diego … Kevin Peraino … Josh Jones … Raleigh Miller … Ryan Lynch … Chrissy Rabuse of Rep. Mary Miller’s (R-Ill.) office … Amazon Web Services’ Kaitlin Kirshner
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